Alpha Rankings
We fit a comparison mix to each fund's historical returns and rank the estimated return beyond that mix. Alpha is not the fund's total return and does not say whether it beat your chosen underlying. The fitted mix is a statistical comparison, not a statement of actual holdings. Analysis dates vary by fund; open Details for the full mix and dates. Compare with an underlying →
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What the labels mean
The label is the one-word answer to “should I trust this alpha number?” — a verdict on the estimate, positive or negative, never on the fund.
| Label | What it says | What it does not say |
|---|---|---|
| Reliable | All three checks pass and the fund has at least a year of history — trust this alpha number, whatever its sign. | That the fund is good. A reliably negative alpha is a reliable verdict too. |
| Credible | Two of three checks pass — the alpha is probably genuine, but one check disagrees. | That the fund is promising. The label grades the evidence, not the fund. |
| Inconclusive | Fewer than two checks pass — the data cannot yet separate this alpha from luck. Listed under “leftover looks like noise”, not ranked. | That the alpha is zero. It may be real; we just can’t show it yet. |
Alpha is a statistical estimate, not a promise — only credible and reliable leftovers are ranked. Funds whose recipe fits too poorly, whose leftover looks like noise, or that are themselves a benchmark building block are listed separately. Option-strategy effects may not be fully captured by a linear model. Nothing here is investment advice. Coverage: funds held in at least five Dividend Vision accounts (privacy-filtered — only ticker symbols are read) or searched enough in the last 30 days, plus a curated set of flagship funds — one control group per derivative strategy (full-overwrite covered calls, 0DTE, single-stock, target-distribution, crypto and bond option income) so the Strategy filter always has a baseline. A missing ticker card means the fund is not yet in the analysed set, never that its alpha is zero. New to the metric? Start with the Alpha Analysis glossary definition.