Portfolios

Growth (the equity total-return anchor)

The Equity total return slider is your assumed annual total return (price + dividends) for broad-market equity, applied month by month. Each holding's own distribution yield is netted out of its asset class's total return to get its price growth, and dividends are then paid separately on top — so income is never double-counted and price growth + dividends ≈ the total return you set. A 3.5%-yield fund at an 11% anchor grows ~7.5% in price; a high-payout fund whose distribution exceeds its total return erodes in price, which is how those funds actually behave.

Each holding grows at its own rate by asset class (Equity / Bonds / Metals / Crypto). The bond, metal, and crypto sliders are price growth — their coupon/payout is the separate yield — and they are decoupled from the equity anchor. The blended rates are applied month by month, so eroding sleeves shrink and lose weight over the horizon.

If you override the starting yield or set a manual Dividend growth rate, the chart switches to a single blended rate (the equity anchor minus your yield) so your override means exactly what it says.

Contributions (Additions/mo)

The Additions/mo slider (Growth panel) is fresh cash you deposit each month on top of reinvested dividends. It's added to the balance every month and compounds alongside everything else, so it lifts both your future income and your account value. Set it to zero for the months you stop contributing — there's no automatic stop date, so the amount you choose keeps flowing for the whole horizon.

Dividends & reinvestment

Each month dividends = current balance × (annual yield ÷ 12). The blended yield drifts over time with the per-class dividend-growth model — dividend growers' payouts rise on their own schedule, while option-income payouts track their (possibly shrinking) NAV — so income follows both your balance and each fund's payout policy. (With a yield override or a manual Dividend growth rate, a single flat or user-drifted yield is used instead.) The % reinvested slider sets the share that compounds back into the portfolio; the remainder (100 − % reinvested) is your cash withdrawal. The reinvestment plan can be one flat rate (Equal), a rate per asset class, or a rate per ticker (which can be filled from your real broker/CSV DRIP history).

You can set separate rates for two phases: before the Goal (while you're still building — reinvest more here to reach the Goal sooner) and after the Goal (once your income can cover the Goal — the rest pays out as cash). Each phase keeps its own rates, and the model switches from the before-Goal rates to the after-Goal rates the month your payout first reaches the Goal. Optimize and Suggest swaps (Pro) are optional helpers that build a per-ticker plan or propose replacement holdings for you; they only change the inputs above, not the rules below.

Withdrawals

• Your monthly withdrawal = the % not reinvested × that month's dividends, so it grows as your dividends grow.
• It is capped at a Withdrawals/mo Max — and there are two, because what you need before vs. after the Goal is usually different:
  • Max (before Goal) — a ceiling while you're still building toward the Goal (e.g. pre-retirement, when you only want a little out and the rest reinvested). It's a slider; at $0 you withdraw nothing before the Goal, or drag it up to set a pre-Goal limit.
  • Max (after Goal) — the higher retirement ceiling that takes over the month your payout reaches the Goal.
  Anything above whichever cap is active — and everything not withdrawn — is reinvested. (If you set a Goal higher than the after-Goal Max, that Max is auto-raised to your Goal.)
• Withdrawals are funded from income only — the model never sells your shares (principal), so an out-of-reach goal can't drain the account to zero.
• The Withdrawals/mo Min is the least you need each month. It doesn't force a sale — if your dividends can't cover it, the forecast simply flags a shortage so you can lower the Goal, extend the timeline, or turn on Start at Goal.

The Goal & "Start at Goal"

• The Goal/mo is your target monthly income. The withdrawal bars turn green once your actual withdrawal reaches the Goal.
• With Start at Goal ON, withdrawals don't begin until your payout (the % not reinvested) first reaches the Goal — so they start at the Goal and grow from there. Reinvest a smaller % to start sooner.
• With Start at Goal OFF, withdrawals begin at the Start(mo) month you choose (everything reinvests before then).

Margin (optional)

When enabled, the model borrows to buy more, accruing interest at the margin APR each month and bounded by your margin cap. Two borrowing styles: Borrow against reinvested dividends (default) borrows leverage × utilization against each month's reinvested cash and never repays principal — so the margin balance flattens once withdrawals begin and most dividends stop being reinvested. Maintain target leverage rebalances monthly toward debt = (leverage − 1) × utilization × equity: borrowing keeps scaling as the portfolio grows (including through retirement), and after a drawdown the model sells holdings to pay the loan back down to target.

Margin calls: if a market drop pushes your equity below your Maintenance requirement (default 30% — set it to your broker's blended level; volatile option-income funds often carry 50–100%), the model force‑sells holdings to pay down the loan — locking in the loss and shrinking future compounding, just like a real broker. A deep enough crash can wipe a leveraged account to zero. Maximum sustainable leverage ≈ 1 ÷ maintenance.

Taxes (optional)

Federal / state / other tax rates are applied to dividends: the liability accrues monthly and is deducted from the account in arrears at each due date — monthly, quarterly (Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct), or yearly (each April) — so total tax paid always matches your rate × total dividends. This is an approximation — one flat rate per bucket; it doesn't distinguish qualified vs. ordinary dividends, account type, or withholding.

Events (optional)

The Events panel drops one or more market shocks into the timeline so you can stress-test the plan. Pick a preset (e.g. a flash crash, a garden-variety recession, or a 2008-style crisis) or build a Custom event by setting the year, how far prices fall (drop %) over how many months, and how long the recovery takes. Each event applies a price hit to your holdings at that point in the horizon and then recovers toward baseline (or to a level you specify), so you can see the dent in both account value and income — and how long it takes to climb back. Toggle Show Events on Charts to mark each shock on the chart. Events are deterministic shocks layered on the single projection; they're separate from the random crashes inside Monte Carlo.

Reading the chart

• Bars = dividends per month: the blue→magenta body is the portion reinvested; the cap on top is the portion withdrawn (green once it meets the Goal).
• The magenta line = account value, shown as net equity (total assets minus any margin debt) on the right axis.

Monte Carlo & "today's dollars"

Monte Carlo runs hundreds of randomized paths; the shaded bands show the range of outcomes and the success rate is the share that reach your Goal. It randomizes price returns (including occasional crash months, mean-compensated so the average path still matches your growth assumption) and the payouts themselves — each holding's monthly dividend wiggles by an amount sized from its real distribution history, so a steady quarterly grower barely moves while a variable monthly payer swings widely. Option-income funds get their income variability through the price path instead, since their payout tracks NAV. (It still doesn't model structural one-off dividend cuts or a permanent change in payout policy.) The bands' midline sits a bit below the single-path line — that's volatility drag (the median of many noisy paths compounds below the average path), not a bug. The real-dollars toggle deflates the chart by your inflation rate — optionally a separate near-term rate for the first few years, then the long-run rate — for display only; all goal math runs on nominal dollars.

Getting a more accurate analysis:

• Keep "Use real track records" on (Growth panel). Each holding with 1+ year of real price history blends toward its actual trailing return, and 6+ months of history upgrades its volatility estimate — so the simulation reflects your actual funds, not generic asset-class averages.
• Leave the Volatility % Auto switch on. The auto value is derived from your real holdings — per-fund volatilities combined with how those funds move together — which is usually a better estimate than a hand-picked number. Typing a number pins it (and flips Auto off); switch Auto back on, or clear the field, to return to the derived value. Override only to stress-test a calmer or wilder market; remember a lower number narrows the bands without making them more truthful.
• Raise Simulations for the final read. The runs are computed on DividendVision's servers, not your device, but each settings change kicks off a fresh batch — 500 runs keep the chart responsive while you explore. The percentile bands and success rate carry sampling noise at low counts; 1,000–2,000 runs (max 5,000) give a steadier success rate you can actually compare between scenarios.
• Audit the assumptions underneath. The simulation randomizes around your growth, yield, contribution, and withdrawal settings — an optimistic equity anchor shifts every band up. Modest assumptions produce more conservative, more believable odds.
• Know the limits. Price returns and ordinary payout variability are randomized, but structural dividend cuts, tax-law changes, and your own behavior in a downturn are not. Treat the success rate as an estimate to compare scenarios with, not a guarantee.